The health of the economy seems to be doing pretty ok through 2005; unemployment is down, stock market has been very healthy (until this past week), housing market hasn’t blown up, high oil prices didn’t seem to affect the market much other than the knee-jerk reactions.Â
So what is in store for us in 2006? The first two things that come to mind are still whether oil is going to go through the roof again and when the housing market will deflate.
First, oil. Say if OPEC decides to cut supply or foreign demands like China continue to supply, the price goes up (much as it has this past week). What really happened in 2005 is that the costs of higher oil prices were not reflected in consumer spending because everyone with their home equity loan (either cash-out or refi) were able to get their hands on a chuck of cash to continue to spend like it’s 1999. How is 2006 different? Market sentiment. Which bring us to our 2nd topic…
Housing market. If everyone expects the slowdown in housing market to materialize, the freespending will not be as liberal. Consumers, in aggregate, will think twice about spending rather than saving. It’s a tough balance because a lack of consumer spending will cause ordinary business income to shrink, which leads to higher unemployment. It’s a death spiral to recession.  But no worries, we are not there yet, consumer sentiment numbers are still in the black.
What does this mean for you? Do what the rest of banking world does, which is to watch what the Fed does. The Fed’s job is to promote steady growth in the economy. You can be assured that the Fed will be watching oil prices, consumer sentiments, stock index, commodity prices, foreign investments alike to gauge the health of the economy. If economy is growing too fast, they raise the rates (or at least say they expect to raise the rates) and vice versa.
However one thing we can be sure of is that Fed knows their history. They know that if they raise rates too much (currently at 4.5%), then they can easily restrict the economy into recession. The Fed knows that is exactly what happened in Japan in 1990. Japanese central bank also had to deal with a hot housing market, one comparable to California and Southern Florida. Japanese central bank tightened the rates too much and too fast and for the past 15 years, Japan has been in a recession and has just begun to recover recently.
From this perspective, Fed is unlikely to tighten too much, which is good for the Stock market and at least neutral for the housing market (if job creations locally can support housing prices). I am bullish for 2006. (Unless we get another 3 peat of category 5 hurricanes, fingers crossed, I live in Florida!)