This news came out of Bloomberg last Friday.
“Japan’s economy grew five times faster than the U.S. in the fourth quarter as exports climbed and growth in consumer spending doubled.                                

  
     The world’s second-largest economy expanded at an annual 5.5 percent pace in the three months to Dec. 31, the Cabinet Office said in Tokyo today. Gross domestic product grew a revised 1.4 percent in the third quarter, up from 1 percent.           

                    
     Japanese consumer confidence is at a 15-year high as companies hire and wages rise, propelling the economy toward its longest postwar expansion. Bonds and the yen fell on speculation a decline in an indicator of prices may give the government more ammunition to pressure the Bank of Japan into postponing a policy change.”
It’s funny how the same type of news could be interpreted so differently.  Basically, Japanese economy is starting to recover as shown by the growth in their GDP.  You would think that Yen should be stronger with the stronger economy news, but Yen actually got weaker.  Where is the rationale in that?
Despite such gains, the sentiment is that Japan is not out of the deflation troubles yet.  GDP of 1.4 percent is still much smaller than that of other growing economy in the region like China (approx. 8+% in recent years)
The fear in the Japanese market is that if the BOJ (Bank of Japan) changes their policy of low interest rates too early (meaning raising rates), their economy may fall back into deflationary mode.
How did this affect the currency market?
The news above combined with the Fed leaning more hawkish (meaning they will more likely raise rates in the coming meeting) based on strong Q1 retail sales data, Dollar strengthened against Yen to just shy of 119 yen today.  This is close to the high of last year.
I believe the Dollar will be strong against the yen for at least the next few months because consumer spending fueled by equity withdrawn from the housing market (as seen in the Q1 retail sales numbers) will continue.  And even when that runs out, consumers can still spend out of their credit card!  After all, that was (should have been) the first thing home owners paid off when they took out equity in their home right?
 

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